Extremely heavy rains over the weekend forced Texas to experience devastating flash floods. According to National Weather Service radar estimations, South Central Texas received up to 12 inches of rain in the early hours of July 4.
Extreme rainstorms, which dump more water in shorter amounts of time and increase the likelihood of disastrous floods, are becoming more common in much of the United States due to climate change.
Last week, that’s what occurred in Texas. The ground is unable to absorb the water when it rains heavily and quickly. All of that extra water is directed into low places if the ground is even somewhat mountainous, and it accelerates as it moves downstream. When water rises and moves quickly, it can result in dangerous flash floods.
Because of its impervious limestone hills and regular rainfall, the area of Texas that flooded last week is known as Flash Flood Alley; yet, the floods were exceptionally severe for the region.
Furthermore, climate change is exacerbating these floods.
This is because more moisture can be held in a warmer atmosphere. Storms can now produce more rain than they used to because of the increased water vapor. According to the National Climate Assessment, the strongest rainstorms in Texas today drop almost 20% more water than they did in the late 1950s, when the earth was much colder. Furthermore, a 2024 assessment by the Texas state scientist predicts that as the climate continues to warm, excessive rainfall in Texas will become much more common over the next ten years.
Texas isn’t the only state. As the earth continues to warm, the strongest storms are expected to produce more rain across the United States.
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The extent to which climate change played a role in this specific storm is still unknown. Initial analysisAccording to estimations from a consortium of European experts, the July 4 storm may have had a little more rain due to climate change. In the days and weeks ahead, more comprehensive data from Texas will be accessible, allowing scientists to perform more accurate studies.
Because Tropical Storm Barry’s leftovers were passing over Texas following the storm’s landfall in Mexico last week, Friday’s rain was especially heavy. Hurricanes and tropical storms are pouring more rain than they used to as the Earth warms. The seas have absorbed the majority of the surplus heat that people have trapped on Earth, and larger, rainy storms are more likely when warmer ocean water and warmer air in the atmosphere mix.
As seen last year by Hurricane Helene’s catastrophic flooding in Appalachia, such storms can result in fatal floods further inland. After making landfall in Louisiana, Hurricane Ida’s remnants caused flash floods in 2021 that killed scores of people in the Northeastern United States.
According to the National Climate Assessment, human-caused climate change would have prevented more than one-third of the predicted $230 billion in damage from inland flooding in the United States between 1988 and 2021.
Outdated rain data hampers predictions and preparations
Along the Guadalupe River, the flash floods in South Central Texas carried away buildings and recreational vehicles, as well as roads and bridges.
Many cities around the nation are still not preparing for more powerful rainstorms as they construct roads, floodways, and storm infrastructure, despite the increasing threats. This is partly due to the fact that flood control systems are planned by local governments nationwide using historical rainfall information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. However, the records are decades old in some locations, so they don’t show how rainstorms have already become more intense over the majority of the nation.
NOAA updated rainfall statistics in Harris County, Texas, which contains Houston, in 2018. The agency discovered that intense storms, which have a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, now drop over 18 inches of rain, up from 13 inches before the 1960s and 1970s.
Due to this rise, one-third of Harris County’s main thoroughfares are at risk of flooding. Due in large part to the flood safety requirements, the county’s flood infrastructure plan increased in cost by $150 million to $200 million in order to address the increasing risk.
In light of the possibility that climate change will continue to exacerbate storms, NOAA is now upgrading historical rainfall records across the country. The delivery of those updates is anticipated to begin in the upcoming year.
Questions regarding whether that schedule is altering under the Trump administration, which has suggested drastically cutting the agency, including its climate change research projects, were not answered by NOAA.
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